New from Mckinsey... Quite rich and robust. My initial takeaway: - 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘆 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵… | 🚀
New from Mckinsey... Quite rich and robust.
My initial takeaway:
- 𝗥𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗰, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘆 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵. Roughly 11 million US workers in declining occupations may need to move into new jobs, with a range of six to 16 million depending on how fast automation is adopted. Only about one in seven can make the move with little or no retraining, and nearly half face a much harder route. The report also says this will require about 770,000 workers a year to switch occupational groups, roughly 3.6 times the historical average.
- 𝗢𝗻𝗴𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮𝘀 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝘀𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴. More than 70 percent of workers could need some level of reinvention, since new tasks may take up more than 15 percent of their time. The report adds that most workers will need to keep building new skills whether their occupation is growing, shrinking, or stable. It also notes that lower-wage workers have far fewer high-quality pathways and will need targeted support such as training and career navigation.
- 𝗦𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻. McKinsey groups skills into three types: essential skills that widen career options, enabling skills that unlock higher pay, and empowering skills that prepare workers for constant change. Still, the authors warn that training is not enough by itself: it cannot remove licensing rules, change hiring practices, or pay workers while they train. About 85 percent of growing jobs require some kind of credential.
If only one in seven displaced workers can switch jobs with minimal retraining, we have a lot of work ahead and very little time to prove it can do it.
The 2 most compelling charts:
Exhibit 20: Skills by average wage and share of occupations
The chart plots each skill by how many occupations require it against the average wage, revealing three clear groups: niche high-paying skills cluster near zero percent of occupations but reach wages of roughly $130,000 to nearly $300,000, enabling skills like collaboration, decision-making, innovation, and critical thinking sit in the middle at roughly $85,000 to $115,000, and essential skills like leadership, problem-solving, and people and process management appear in 75 to 100 percent of occupations at around $60,000 to $70,000.
Exhibit 24: Barriers to entering growing occupations
85 percent of growing occupations require a credential, 76 percent require physical presence, 25 percent sit at the bottom wage quintiles, and workers in growing occupations average 91 percent English proficiency. Together, they show that credentials and location are near-universal gates, while language is a quieter but real filter for non-native speakers.
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